‘No chance. No chance in hell.’ I declare to Cleveland Dan.
‘Mickey, you are wrong. The Cleveland Browns are a better team than the Chicago Bears going into this season.’
My cousin Pat walks in on the debate to pay me a visit at my local dive bar. ‘Fellas.’
‘Hey, Pat.’ Dan breaks his concentration to greet Pat.
He sits down next to me with his usual greeting. ‘Cousin, Mickey.’
‘Cousin, Pat. Your mom got the kids?
‘You know it. I can only stay for a few; we are having an early dinner. I got to get the kids back for an early bedtime.’
‘What’s your bride up to?’ I ask.
‘She and her sister are – ‘
‘Never mind. I don’t give a shit.’ I pause to drink my Bud and bring Pat into the conversation. ‘Dan here thinks the Browns are going to be better than the Bears in 2024.’
Pat laughs. ‘No chance.’
Cleveland Dan is upset. ‘Fuck you guys.’ He excuses himself from the bar. ‘I am going outside for some fresh air and a smoke.’
I yell. ‘Isn’t that a contradiction? Smoking in fresh air.’
He flips me the bird over his shoulder.
I return my attention to Pat. ‘I don’t think people realize what Poles has done and how well he has set the Bears up for the future.’
Pat answers. ‘It really comes down to Caleb Williams.’
I nod. ‘That is true, but look at Bryce Young. Carolina can say the same thing, but that roster is trash. He will be done with his rookie deal before they sniff a winning record.’
‘That’s true.’
Cleveland Dan returns and chats with Murph, the bartender, to the side. They are also listening to my conversation.
‘An NFL roster has 53 players. Take away the 3 special teams, and you are at 50. No NFL roster has 50 impact players, right?’
‘Right.’ Dan answers.
I nod in appreciation of his contribution. ‘A good roster has 3 safeties, 4 CBs, 4 LBs, 3 DEs, and 3DTs as impact players. That is a total of 17 on defense. With me?’
Murph answers. ‘Yes, continue.’
‘A good offensive roster has 4 IOL, 3 tackles, 2 TEs, 3 WRs, 2 RBs, and 1 QB. That is a total of 15.’
Cleveland Dan challenges. ‘You need a back up QB and a fourth wide receiver.’
‘I agree. Name me one impact backup QB. Not every team has an impact starting QB, for fuck sake. The backup QB, 4th WR, and 4th DE are roster players, not impact players.’
‘Got it.’ Dan agrees.
‘Let’s look at the Bears roster. How many impact players are on the roster now compared to two years ago, when Poles took over?’ I ask.
‘Jenkins and Kmet.’ Pat offers.
‘Yes, but Poles had to sign Kmet to an extension.’
Murph adds. ‘Johnson the CB and Herbert the running back.’
I again answer, ‘True, but again, Poles had to sign Johnson to an extension, and Herbert is now the third-string running back. Anyone else?’
The group is stymied. Cleveland Dan asks. ‘Is that it? Is that really it?’
‘That’s it. Now, let’s look at the roster entering the draft. On defense: 2 safeties, 4 CBs, 4 LBs, 2 DEs, 2 DTs—a total of 14 of the required 17. I counted Pickens as a roster player and Dexter as an impact. The rest are obvious. Poles has one guy. Johnson is a carryover from Poles, and he had to resign him to an extension.’
Pat laughs. ‘That’s crazy.’
I continue: ‘On offense, there are 3 IOLs, 2 tackles, 2 TEs, 3 WRs, 2 RBs, and a QB—13 of the required 15.’
‘Agreed?’ They nod, and I continue. ‘So, 13 of the required 15 are on the roster. POLES HAS BUILT A ROSTER OF 28 IMPACT PLAYERS WITH 2 COMING FROM THE PREVIOUS GM PACE.’
Murph laughs. ‘That’s pretty damn good.’
‘I can’t tell you how huge drafting Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze were for this franchise. Replacing a huge weakness with two future Pro Bowl players is a game-changer. The Bears are poised, depending on Williams’ rookie learning curve, to have a top-10 offense. Before you say it, I love Justin Fields, too, but let’s face it: he has zero anticipation and cannot and never will play on schedule. Williams is the much better QB.’
Murph laughs. ‘Things have to develop, but a top-10 offense with a top-10 defense is exciting.’
‘But that’s not the good news.’ I shock my audience.
‘No?’ Cleveland Dan asks, worried as a Brown fan. If the Bears are good and the Browns suck, football season is brutal for him.
‘The Bears still have $22m in cap space this year. They can sign Ryan Tannehill as Dan’s required backup QB and trade for or sign an impact DE or 3-technique DT.’
Cousin Pat sees my vision. ‘Now we are up to 29 impact players and a trusted backup QB.’
Cleveland Dan mumbles. ‘Shit.’
‘I am not finished. THE 2025 DRAFT AND FREE AGENCY ARE HUGE FOR THE BEARS.’
‘How so?’ Murph asks.
‘Remember the Carolina trade? The Bears still have more coming; they get the Panthers second-round pick which is basically a late first because they suck. The Bears have three picks in the top 50 in 2025.’
Pat laughs. ‘That brings it to 31-32.’
I remind him. ‘If they sign IOL Jenkins to an extension.’
‘They will.’ Pat celebrates. ’Let’s call it 32 impact players in 2025. So, you’re saying we have a chance!’
‘There’s more.’ I whisper as I nod Murph for another round. ‘After the three picks in the first two rounds, the Bears have four more picks.’
‘Shit.’ Cleveland Dan moans.
‘If that were not enough,’ I pause for dramatic effect. The Bears are in great salary cap shape with a QB and a WR1 on rookie deals. They have $99 m in projected cap space for 2025. They can sign a couple of free agents after they resign, Jenkins.’
Murph smiles. ‘We’ll have 34 with room to spare.’
‘Correct. The Bears have four developmental players on the roster who should emerge in 2025. Guys like Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale, who was drafted in the third round, and EDGE Austin Booker, who was drafted in the fifth. He should have gone in the third.
‘Fuck me. I was excited after the draft; I had no idea how bright 2025 was going to be.’
I lean back on my stool. ‘That’s all I am saying. And the Bears are still better than the Brown this year while we wait on 34.’
‘Fuck off.’
‘BEAR DOWN CHICAGO BEARS! MAKE EVERY PLAY CLEAR THE WAY TO VICTORY.’